Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

Abstract A large literature examines how citizens in violent conflicts react to the conflict's events, particularly escalations. Nevertheless, temporal nature of these attitudinal changes remains under-studied. We suggest that popular reactions greater violence are typically immediate but brief, indicating short-term emotional responses physical threats. Over longer term, however, public opinion is more commonly shaped by non-violent events signaling adversary's perceived intentions, reflecting slower deeper belief-updating processes. support this argument using dynamic analyses comprehensive monthly data from Israel spanning two full decades (2001–20). Rather than levels, we find long-term Jewish attitudes on Israeli–Palestinian conflict follow implying Palestinian preferences, failed negotiations and out-group leadership changes. Our findings underscore importance opinion's dynamics show which often overlooked literature, play a prominent role shaping conflictual contexts.